Casino EV Simulator guide
Wager X Get Y EV Calculator
Calculate the full value of wager-and-get promotions by separating the qualifying play from the cash, bonus or free-spin reward that follows.
Value the qualifying play and reward separately
A Wager X Get Y promotion has at least two components: the play required to qualify and the reward received after qualification. The reward might be cash, bonus funds or free spins. The correct EV is the value of the reward after subtracting the expected cost of qualifying and any later wagering.
The calculator therefore gives the qualifying stage its own deposit, wagering amount, game, RTP and stake. The reward stage can then have separate rules. This avoids the common mistake of calling a £10 reward “£10 EV” when it costs several pounds in expected game loss to earn it.
Worked cash-reward example
Suppose an offer requires £100 of blackjack wagering at 99.5% RTP and then awards £5 cash. With no other conditions, the qualifying play has an expected cost of 0.5% of £100, or 50p.
That is a much better description of the offer than simply saying “Bet £100, get £5”. If the qualifying game, wager amount or reward changes, the EV changes with it.
Reproducible simulator result
This snapshot comes directly from the current engine using 100,000 simulations, fixed seed 20261010, generated on 10 October 2026.
| Setting | Value |
|---|---|
| Deposit | £100 |
| Qualifying play | £100 Blackjack wagering at 99.5% RTP |
| Stake | £5 |
| Reward | £5 cash |
| Re-deposit after bust | Off |
| Result | Fixed-seed output |
|---|---|
| Mathematical EV | +£4.50 |
| Simulated EV | +£4.66 |
| Qualifying completion | 99.996% |
| Qualifying bust | 0.004% |
| Average wagered | £100.00 |
| 5th–95th percentile result | −£37.63 to +£47.19 |
The average is close to the +£4.50 deterministic calculation because almost every trial completes the £100 qualifying turnover. The spread of individual outcomes is still wide, which is why a positive EV does not imply that any one attempt will finish near +£4.50.
Open this calculator Enter the published settings above to compare a fresh live run.
When the reward is bonus funds
Bonus funds are not automatically worth their face value if they come with additional wagering. The calculator can give the reward its own game, RTP, stake, volatility, wagering amount and maximum winnings.
For example, if the same £100 qualifying play above awards a £10 bonus that must itself be wagered £100 at 95% RTP, the qualifying cost is 50p and the reward wagering has an expected cost of £5. Before path-dependent effects, the calculation is −£0.50 + £10 − £5 = +£4.50 EV.
A maximum-winnings cap makes the result dependent on the path taken through the reward stage, so simulation becomes more important.
How free spins are valued
Free spins need more than a spin count. Their expected gross winnings depend on the number of spins, the stake per spin and the RTP of the free-spin game. In the calculator, the simple expected free-spin return is based on:
If 50 free spins are worth 20p each at 95% RTP, their expected gross winnings are £9.50 before any later wagering. If those winnings then have a 10× wagering requirement, the model expects £95 of subsequent wagering and applies the RTP of the game used for that stage. The simulator can use a different game/RTP for the wagering of free-spin winnings when the terms require it.
Re-depositing after a qualifying bust
Some promotions require the full qualifying turnover even if the initial cash balance is lost. If you genuinely intend to add more cash and continue, the calculator can model re-deposits. Those extra deposits are not free: they are included as additional cash invested when EV is calculated.
Do not switch this on merely to force 100% qualification. It should match the way you would actually complete the offer. A target-profit stopping rule can also make the qualifying stage path-dependent and remove a clean Mathematical EV.
Wager X Get Y questions
Is the reward amount the same as EV?
No. EV is the reward value minus the expected cost of qualifying and any reward wagering, with bankroll and path-dependent rules included where relevant.
How are free spins converted to an expected value?
The calculator values their expected winnings from spin count, stake and RTP, then applies any required wagering to those expected winnings. Simulation also models the distribution of actual free-spin outcomes.
What if there is no qualifying wager?
The calculator can disable the qualifying-wager stage for promotions where the reward is granted without that turnover. The reward rules still determine the remaining value.
Why compare Edge as well as EV?
EV is expected cash profit or loss. Edge expresses that value relative to expected required wagering, which helps compare offers with very different turnover requirements.
Related calculators and guides
Casino EV Simulator is a calculation tool. Results are expected values based on the assumptions entered, not predictions or guarantees for a single attempt.