Getting Started
Start on Home and choose a calculator under Calculate EV, or use Multi Offer to combine several separate offer steps.
- Use the five tabs at the bottom of a calculator to switch offer type.
- On Calculator Home, the top-left arrow and “Casino EV Simulator” title return to the main website. Inside an offer, the top-left arrow returns to Calculator Home.
- Settings lives on Home so global preferences stay separate from individual offers.
- Help is available from Home and from every offer calculator.
Multi Offer
Multi Offer combines several separate offer steps and shows their individual and combined value.
- Tap Add Step and choose an offer type. Each step uses the same mechanics and settings as its normal calculator.
- Tap an existing step to edit it. Use its menu to Duplicate, Move Up, Move Down or Delete it.
- Mathematical EV is calculated for each step where deterministic calculation is available, then combined.
- Simulated EV is the sum of the independently simulated step EVs.
- Overall Edge uses the combined expected value and expected wagering across all steps.
- Multi Offer assumes you re-deposit as required if an individual step busts, so one failed step does not prevent later steps from being valued.
EV Calculators
Each calculator models a different casino offer and estimates its expected value from the inputs you provide.
- Deposit Bonus — deposit, bonus and wagering offers.
- Wager X Get Y — qualifying wagering followed by Cash, Bonus or Free Spins.
- Second Chance — an initial cash attempt with a fallback reward if the cash attempt fails.
- % Refund — refund/cashback offers based on qualifying losses or winnings.
- Sticky Bonus — non-withdrawable bonus funds with separate cash and bonus stages.
- Use Details inside a calculator for a short explanation of that specific offer type.
EV Methods
Calculate EV shows Mathematical and Simulated EV together so you can compare the deterministic RTP value with the simulated result.
- Mathematical EV calculates directly from the offer terms and RTP where the offer can be resolved reliably, so it contains no Monte Carlo noise.
- Deposit Bonus and Sticky offers can use deterministic RTP calculations where the balance can survive the required wagering.
- Wager X Get Y can include fixed bonus wagering and wagering of free-spin winnings. Expected free-spin winnings are valued from face value × RTP before any later wagering.
- For Blackjack, Roulette and Baccarat % Refund offers, the calculator uses the finite outcome distribution where exact resolution is practical.
- Simulated EV repeatedly plays the offer using the selected game, stake and payout distribution and reports the average result.
- The simulation count in Settings is exact: selecting 500,000 requests 500,000 trials unless you press Stop.
- If Mathematical EV cannot be calculated reliably, it is shown as unavailable with an info explanation rather than presenting an approximation as exact.
Why do these differ?
Mathematical EV treats the modelled RTP as an exact deterministic return. Simulated EV models individual outcomes, so stake size, volatility, bankroll survival, busts and incomplete wagering can move the sampled result away from Mathematical EV.
- More simulations reduce Monte Carlo noise around Simulated EV, but they do not guarantee it will move toward Mathematical EV. If bankroll limits, busts, early stopping or conditional rules make the two methods value the offer differently, the gap can remain even after very large runs.
- A larger stake relative to the bankroll increases the importance of individual outcomes and the chance of busting before wagering is complete.
- Maximum winnings, target-profit rules, re-deposits and conditional rewards can make an exact Mathematical EV unavailable even though Simulated EV can still be estimated.
Running a Simulation
Enter the offer terms and tap Calculate EV to calculate both EV views together.
- Refresh resets the current calculator to its defaults.
- While a simulation is running, Calculate changes to Stop so you can end the run and keep the completed partial sample.
- Estimated Value is the expected average profit or loss from the configured offer, not a guarantee for one attempt.
- On phones and tablets, a long run can pause if the browser is backgrounded or the screen is locked.
Result Panel
Tap More after a run to see the risk and workload statistics behind the EV.
- Bust — percentage of simulations where the offer bankroll was exhausted before the relevant objective was reached.
- Completion — percentage of simulations that completed the required wagering or reached the configured finishing condition.
- Avg wagered — average total amount actually wagered per simulation. Busts and early stopping can make this lower than the headline wagering requirement.
- Avg time — estimated average playing time using the seconds-per-hand/spin values you entered.
- Cash / hour — Simulated EV divided by the estimated average playing time. Treat it as an efficiency estimate, not guaranteed earnings.
- Simulations — number of Monte Carlo trials included in the displayed result.
- Cash Bust / Bonus Bust — where shown, these separate failures in the cash and reward/bonus stages.
- Truncated — simulations stopped by the engine's safety limit before reaching a normal ending. A meaningful truncated rate makes the result less reliable.
Understanding Edge
Edge shows the expected profit relative to the expected total wagering required by the offer.
- Edge = EV ÷ expected total required wagering × 100.
- For a 10-unit reward with 100 units wagering and 5 units EV, the edge is 5%.
- For Wager X Get Y, qualifying cash wagering and any known reward wagering are combined.
- For free-spin winnings wagering, expected free-spin winnings are used to estimate the later wagering requirement.
- If an offer has zero wagering, Edge is shown as N/A because there is no valid wagering denominator.
Common Inputs
- Deposit / Bonus — starting cash and promotional funds available under the offer rules.
- Wagering Amount — total qualifying play required, not the number of hands or spins.
- Stake — amount placed on each simulated hand/spin.
- RTP — modelled long-run Return to Player for the selected game.
- Volatility — for slots, changes the payout distribution and therefore the spread of results while retaining the selected RTP.
- Time per hand/spin — used only for the Avg time and Cash/hour estimates; it does not change EV.
- Target profit — cash play can stop once the configured profit above the relevant starting cash is reached.
- Maximum winnings — caps the amount that can be retained from the applicable bonus/reward stage.
- Re-deposit if cash busts — continues qualifying cash wagering after a bust by adding another deposit; every additional deposit is included as a cost in EV.
- Use bonus first — changes which balance is consumed first where the offer permits separate cash and bonus funds.
Deposit Bonus Controls
Deposit and bonus form the playable bankroll. Wagering continues until the requirement completes or the playable balance can no longer fund the stake.
- Use bonus funds before cash changes the order in which the two balances are consumed.
- Maximum winnings caps simulated profit from the Deposit Bonus offer at that figure; it does not cap the final withdrawable balance.
Wager X Get Y Controls
- Qualifying wagering models the cash play required to earn the reward.
- The reward can be Cash, Bonus or Free Spins. Bonus and Free Spins can have their own game, RTP, stake, volatility and wagering rules.
- Cash counts towards reward wagering determines whether remaining cash play also reduces the reward wagering requirement.
- Wager in different game lets free-spin winnings or reward funds be wagered using a different RTP/volatility from the reward game.
- Free-spin maximum winnings can be entered as a fixed amount or multiplier where applicable.
Second Chance Controls
The cash stage is attempted first. If that stage busts before reaching the cash target profit, the configured fallback reward is triggered.
- The fallback can be Bonus or Free Spins and uses its own wagering settings.
- A different bonus game can be selected when the reward is wagered somewhere other than the qualifying game.
% Refund Controls
- Apply refund to chooses whether the percentage is based on losses, winnings or both according to the modelled offer.
- Refund percentage is the percentage returned; Maximum refund caps that return.
- Walk away win amount stops play when the gross return from a single winning bet is at least this amount. It is not a running-total profit target.
- Roulette can model Even Money or Single Number bets. Blackjack affordability is modelled from the current bankroll; exact Mathematical EV can be unavailable when resolving every bankroll state would be too slow.
Sticky Bonus Controls
The sticky bonus is playable but not itself withdrawable. Cash play and bonus wagering can therefore have different rules.
- The cash target profit applies while cash remains.
- Cash counts towards bonus wagering decides whether cash bets reduce the sticky bonus wagering requirement.
- The sticky bonus can have a separate game, RTP, volatility, stake and play time.
- After wagering, the original sticky bonus is removed before settlement; only the resulting withdrawable balance is valued.
Experience
Smooth, A few bumps, Bumpy and Wild describe how widely simulated outcomes varied relative to cash exposure. They describe variability, not whether the offer is profitable.
Settings
Settings controls preferences used across the calculators.
- Simulation count controls how many Monte Carlo trials are run per calculation.
- Currency can be set manually or left on Auto. Auto first uses Cloudflare's visitor country when available and otherwise falls back to your device/browser region.
- Changing currency changes the displayed unit and symbol only. It does not convert numbers you have already entered.
- Currency and simulation-count preferences are stored locally on this device. Casino inputs and calculation results are not saved.
Install App
Use Add to Home Screen on Home to install Casino EV Simulator as a standalone web app with the Casino EV icon. On iPhone and iPad, use the browser Share menu and choose Add to Home Screen.
Privacy & Analytics
Calculator inputs, balances, RTPs, step names and EV results are not sent for analytics. Hosted traffic analytics can record anonymous visit information and broad usage events such as calculator type and simulation count.