Cash reward
£100 wagering at 99.5% RTP costs 50p in simple expectation. A £5 cash reward therefore gives +£4.50 EV before any other rules.
Casino EV Simulator guide
Casino Expected Value (EV) Explained
Expected value is the long-run average profit or loss of a setup. This guide explains how RTP, promotional value, variance and bankroll survival combine to determine casino-offer EV.
What expected value means
Expected value (EV) is the average financial result a setup would produce over a very large number of repetitions under the same assumptions. Positive EV means the modelled average is profitable; negative EV means the average is a loss; zero EV is break-even.
EV is not a forecast of the next result. An offer with +£5 EV can lose £50 on one attempt and make £60 on another. The +£5 describes the average across the probability distribution, not the most likely individual finish.
EV = Σ(probability of outcome × profit or loss from that outcome)
RTP, house edge and expected game cost
Return to Player (RTP) describes the long-run proportion of stake returned by the game model. A 95% RTP corresponds to a 5% house edge. In the simplest fixed-wagering calculation, expected game cost is:
House edge = 1 − RTP
Expected game cost = wagering × house edge
If £1,000 is wagered at 95% RTP, the simple expected game cost is £50. At 99.5% RTP, the same £1,000 has a simple expected cost of £5. This is why the qualifying game can matter enormously to promotion value.
How a casino promotion can create positive EV
A promotion adds value on top of the underlying game. Cash rewards add directly once earned. Bonus funds add value but may create further wagering cost. Free spins have an expected return based on spin value and RTP. Refunds alter the value of particular final outcomes. Second-chance offers add a reward only on a conditional path.
The basic question is always the same: does the expected promotional value exceed the expected cost of the play required to obtain and clear it?
EV and variance are different
Two offers can have the same EV and very different risk profiles. A low-variance path may finish near its average relatively often. A high-variance path can produce a much wider spread of wins and losses even though the mean is unchanged.
That is why Casino EV Simulator reports more than EV. Bust rate, completion, average wagering and the Experience label help describe how the distribution behaves. A high positive EV does not make a high-variance offer low risk.
Why bankroll survival changes playable EV
Textbook expected-loss formulas often assume every required bet is placed. A real finite bankroll cannot do that after it runs out of money. If the balance falls below the selected stake, the simulation cannot place the next bet and the wagering requirement may remain incomplete.
Stake size and volatility therefore matter because they change the route through the offer. A larger stake can increase the chance of an early bust. A more volatile payout distribution can create both bigger recoveries and deeper drawdowns. Those effects can produce a persistent difference between deterministic Mathematical EV and Simulated EV.
Mathematical EV versus Simulated EV
Mathematical EV uses the entered terms and RTP directly where the offer can be resolved reliably without pretending a path-dependent rule is exact. It contains no Monte Carlo sampling noise.
Simulated EV repeatedly plays the modelled offer using individual outcomes. More simulations reduce random sampling noise, but they do not force Simulated EV to equal Mathematical EV when busts, caps, targets or conditional rewards make the two methods value genuinely different paths.
If the calculator says Mathematical EV is unavailable, that is intentional. It is better to show no exact figure than to label a shortcut as exact when the offer mechanics do not support it.
Three quick EV examples
Deposit bonus
A £100 bonus with £1,000 wagering at 95% RTP has a simple expected game cost of £50, giving +£50 Mathematical EV before caps or path effects.
Negative EV
If a £5 reward requires £200 wagering at 95% RTP, the expected game cost is £10. The simple EV is therefore −£5.
Expected value questions
Does positive EV mean I should expect to win this time?
No. Positive EV is a long-run average under the model. Individual results can be much better or worse.
Is RTP the same as EV?
No. RTP describes the underlying game return. EV includes the promotion and any qualifying/reward rules on top of that game.
Can a lower-RTP game ever produce a better promotional EV?
Yes, especially for mechanics such as refunds where payout distribution and stopping rules matter, or when the lower-RTP game qualifies differently under the offer. RTP is important but not always the only variable.
What is Edge?
In this simulator, Edge is EV divided by expected required wagering. It is an efficiency measure for comparing how much expected value is generated per unit of turnover.
Related calculators and guides
Casino EV Simulator is a calculation tool. Results are expected values based on the assumptions entered, not predictions or guarantees for a single attempt.