Casino EV Simulator guide
How Casino EV Simulator Calculates EV
Casino EV Simulator uses deterministic calculations where the mechanics can be resolved reliably and Monte Carlo simulation to model individual outcomes, bankroll survival and path-dependent offer rules.
Mathematical EV
Mathematical EV calculates directly from the configured offer terms and RTP when the rules can be resolved reliably without pretending uncertain mechanics are exact. In a simple fixed-wagering stage, the game contribution is wagering × (RTP − 1), with promotional value then added or subtracted according to the offer.
When a maximum-winnings cap, target-profit rule, conditional fallback or another path-dependent mechanic means a single deterministic formula would be misleading, the calculator can leave Mathematical EV unavailable and explain why.
Simulated EV
Simulated EV repeatedly plays the configured offer. Each trial follows the selected game, stake, RTP and payout model, applies the offer rules and records the final profit or loss. The displayed Simulated EV is the average across the completed trials.
Increasing the simulation count reduces ordinary Monte Carlo noise, but it does not guarantee convergence to Mathematical EV. If bankroll exhaustion, early stopping or conditional rewards make the playable model different from the deterministic one, a persistent gap is expected.
Slots and volatility
For slots, volatility changes the payout distribution rather than the amount entered as the stake. Low, Medium and High represent different shapes of outcomes while the configured RTP remains the long-run return target.
The Low, Medium and High settings use generic payout tables created for the simulator. They are not payout data from any specific slot game. Real games with the same stated RTP can have different hit rates, payout distributions, feature frequency and bonus behaviour, so simulated results may differ from a particular real slot.
Blackjack, Roulette and Baccarat
Table games use finite modelled outcome distributions in the simulator. Roulette supports even-money and single-number outcome structures. Blackjack includes a compact return distribution and bankroll-affordability handling for larger downside/upside exposure. Baccarat uses its modelled finite outcomes.
For % Refund setups, exact Mathematical EV is used where the state space is practical to resolve. If exact resolution would be too costly, the calculator leaves the exact figure unavailable and Simulated EV remains usable.
Bankroll and affordability
The simulator never assumes a stake can be placed when the available bankroll cannot fund it. Bankroll exhaustion can therefore end a trial before all wagering is complete. This is one reason Simulated EV can remain different from a deterministic RTP calculation even after many simulations.
Re-deposit settings are treated as additional cash invested rather than free bankroll. Multi Offer similarly values later independent steps even after an earlier bust, equivalent to adding the cash needed to continue the planned set.
How result metrics are calculated
| Metric | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Simulated EV | Average simulated profit or loss across completed trials. |
| Mathematical EV | Deterministic value where the offer rules can be resolved reliably. |
| Edge | EV divided by expected required wagering. |
| Bust | Share of trials where the relevant bankroll is exhausted. |
| Completion | Share reaching the required wagering or other successful finish condition. |
| Avg wagered | Average turnover actually observed in the simulations. |
| Avg time | Average simulated play count multiplied by the entered seconds per play. |
| Cash/hour | Simulated EV divided by estimated playing time; an efficiency estimate, not guaranteed earnings. |
When Mathematical EV is available
| Offer type | Typical treatment |
|---|---|
| Deposit Bonus | Available for straightforward fixed wagering when no path-dependent cap prevents an exact result and the deterministic balance can survive. |
| Wager X Get Y | Available for many fixed cash, bonus and free-spin reward setups; target-profit rules and caps can make it unavailable. |
| Second Chance | Unavailable because the fallback depends on whether the initial cash stage actually fails. |
| % Refund | Can be exact for supported table-game states; slot refund EV uses simulation because the payout/stopping path matters. |
| Sticky Bonus | Usually simulation-led because the cash target and cash/bonus transition are path-dependent. |
| Multi Offer | Combined Mathematical EV is shown only when every individual step has one. |
What the model does not know
The simulator only knows the terms and assumptions entered. It cannot infer casino-specific eligibility rules, game contribution percentages, excluded games, account restrictions, unpublished RTP variants or whether a promotion will actually be credited.
Slot payout tables are generic models, not reverse-engineered games. Time-per-play affects time and cash/hour estimates but not EV. Currency changes labels only; it does not convert entered values. The simulation safety limits also prevent a single stage from running indefinitely.
For all of those reasons, the quality of the result depends on entering the actual promotion rules and interpreting EV as a modelled average rather than a guarantee.
Core formulas
How this content is checked
The explanatory pages are checked against the current simulator rules rather than written as generic casino advice. Published simulation snapshots are generated directly from the same engine used by the calculator, with the settings, simulation count, date and fixed seed shown so the results can be reproduced. Worked arithmetic is recalculated separately, and the methodology states where the model uses assumptions such as generic slot payout tables.
Related calculators and guides
Casino EV Simulator is a calculation tool. Results are expected values based on the assumptions entered, not predictions or guarantees for a single attempt.