Casino Refund & Cashback EV Calculator

Loss refunds, win refunds and both

A percentage refund is only meaningful once you know what amount the percentage applies to. The calculator can model a refund based on the final session loss, the final session win, or the absolute movement in either direction. It then applies the configured maximum refund cap.

For a loss-refund offer, only a net loss at settlement creates a refund. For a winnings-based offer, positive profit is the eligible amount. “Both” uses the magnitude of the final result. Those are different offer mechanics and can produce very different EV even with the same percentage.

Understand the Walk away win amount

The Walk away win amount is the gross return from a single winning bet that is large enough to end the simulated run. It is not a cumulative session-profit target.

This distinction matters most for games with very different payout sizes. A roulette single-number win can end the run immediately at a threshold that an even-money win cannot reach. The stopping rule changes the distribution of final profits and losses, so it also changes the value of a refund.

Simple refund example

Suppose an offer refunds 10% of losses, capped at £20. If the qualifying session finishes £40 down, the refund is £4. If it finishes £300 down, 10% would be £30 but the £20 cap applies, so the refund is £20.

That calculation values the refund after a result is known. To find the offer's EV before playing, the calculator has to model the probabilities of the possible stopping outcomes that lead to those different refund amounts.

Reproducible simulator result

This is a current-engine run using 100,000 simulations, fixed seed 20261010, generated on 10 October 2026.

The simulated result sits very close to the exact solver here. The wide outcome range also shows why refund value cannot be inferred from RTP alone: most trials finish by exhausting the bankroll, while a smaller set finish on the large single-number return.

Open this calculator Enter the published settings above to compare a fresh live run.

Why the highest-RTP game is not automatically best

RTP is an average return, but refund EV depends on the shape of outcomes as well. A game with frequent small wins behaves differently from a game with rarer, larger wins when the promotion stops after a particular gross return and refunds only certain final outcomes.

That is why two games can rank differently under a refund promotion even when one has the higher base RTP. Stake size, payout distribution, refund percentage, cap, bankroll and walk-away threshold all interact.

Exact table-game calculations and slot simulation

For Blackjack, Roulette and Baccarat, the simulator has finite modelled outcome distributions. Where the state space can be resolved practically, it uses those distributions to calculate an exact Mathematical EV for the refund setup.

For slots, the refund EV depends on the generic payout distribution and stopping path, so the calculator uses Simulated EV rather than presenting a deterministic shortcut. If an exact table-game calculation would be too costly for the selected state space, Mathematical EV is also left unavailable instead of substituting an estimate.